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What’s happening, Oklahoma? It is Wednesday, September 3, and I want to talk lies, damn lies and statistics.

There’s been a lot of back and forth on social media this week between Sen. James Lankford and California Gov. Gavin Newsom about whose state is more crime-ridden, his or ours.

For what it’s worth, neither is near the top.

But the real answer is: it all depends.

Are you talking about homicides only? Or are we being specific about murder vs. homicide? Are we talking only about “intentional” homicide, or are we including “unintentional”?

Or do you mean the broader “violent crime,” which can include assault, robbery and rape?

Are you talking about number of crimes? Or per capita?

For cities over 1M people, per capita seems like the fairest way to judge. If one person in a town of 27 is murdered, that’s going to result in an awfully high murder rate.

But I digress.

Are you talking about cities or counties?

That can make a big difference.

Are you talking about the most recent year for which official data are available? Or are you staring down the barrel of 2015 data?

If you’ll refer to the original social media post (above) by Gov. Newsom, he refers to a homicide rate — and Sen. Lankford retorts with violent crime, which is not the same thing. Lankford is invoking a straw man argument, a logical fallacy when one party misrepresents another’s point to make it easier to counter.

Sen. Lankford was referencing the broader “violent crime” data from 2023. Yes, California had a higher “violent crime” rate than Oklahoma for that year. However, a specific murder rate by state calculation is not yet available for beyond 2022, so that’s what we have to go by.

Also, a reminder: Murder and homicide are not the same. All murders are homicides, but not all homicides are murders.

It makes a big difference if we care about accuracy.

But according to official government data from both 2021 and 2022 (neither 2023 nor 2024 is available yet by state), Oklahoma’s homicide rate is in fact higher than California’s.

Sorry, Sen. Lankford. Gov. Newsom was correct about what he originally said.

Here’s data from the FBI and the CDC:

But forget about the argument between Newsom and Lankford for a second. What if I suggested to you that the numbers didn’t matter nearly as much as how we feel about our own safety in our own neighborhoods.

For example, in Chicago this weekend, there were 58 people shot. That’s awful.

But I went to Chicago two weeks ago, and I felt very safe. I did.

(For the record, the least safe I’ve ever felt was on a run through Wilmington, Delaware, near the Hotel Dupont. Our hosts apologized profusely for not warning me.)

It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t heed the cries of neighborhoods asking for help, if they are. It also doesn’t mean we should ever, ever accept the federal government militarizing our own cities.

Why? Because it’s all for show, as is Sen. Lankford’s argument.

And it sets one whale of a precedent.

Newsom’s argument here (ultimately, in my opinion) is that Lankford is the wrong guy to be challenging this data. Maybe it should be Republicans Susan Collins from Maine or Mike Lee from Utah. Look at their homicide rates. Their states have undeniably, inarguably lower crime rates than California.

Also, this isn’t about Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma City or Tulsa. Depending on the year, over the past couple of decades, they’ve all three been on a Top 20 crime list.

What it’s about is a really simple concept. What’s allowed by this president could also be allowed by a future, Democrat president.

Once this militarization seal is fully broken, it can and will be weaponized by those in power.

And this year’s Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington D.C., could be 2029’s St. Louis, Memphis, or Tulsa.

Or wherever a future Democrat president wants to put on a show.

Nashville. Birmingham. Little Rock. Cincinnati. Orlando.

Dallas or Houston.

Do we really want that?

You can message me anytime at [email protected].

Weather Update ☀️

Slight storm chances Wednesday night for northern and western Oklahoma. But mostly sunny and warm.

🌡️ Wednesday's high in OKC 86°
🌡️ Wednesday’s high in Tulsa 85°

Raising Oklahoma’s minimum wage would benefit public safety, report finds

By Emma Murphy, Oklahoma Voice
Click here to read the story.
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OKLAHOMA CITY — Spending on crime, incarceration, and corrections would be reduced in Oklahoma if the minimum wage were raised to $15, according to a report. 

Higher wages could help break the “cycle of poverty and incarceration” while reducing the burden on law enforcement, according to a report from This Land Research and Communications Collaborative, a nonpartisan research group. The report was compiled by Scioto Analysis, a public policy analysis firm.  

“We find that a $15 minimum wage could yield significant public safety benefits for Oklahoma, particularly by reducing violent crime and its associated human and economic toll,” the report found. “These effects are most concentrated among young, low-wage populations and may help mitigate some of the state’s historically high incarceration rates while promoting reintegration into the workforce.”

Voters will decide whether or not to raise Oklahoma’s minimum wage  in the June 2026 primary election. If approved by voters, State Question 832 would gradually increase the $7.25 an hour minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2029. Additional increases would be tied to the cost of living measured by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index.

Oklahoma would see 7,000 less crimes per year, or a decrease of 3%, the report predicts. Most of these are estimated to be property crimes. 

The state would have to increase police forces by 11%, or about 1,000 officers, to achieve the same result. This would cost Oklahoma about $58 million per year, the report found. 

“These findings make clear that raising wages is not only an economic issue, but a public safety issue,” said Rob Moore, principal researcher for Scioto Analysis. “When people can earn a fair wage, they are less likely to be pushed toward crime and more likely to build stable, thriving lives. This new analysis clearly shows raising the minimum wage isn’t just about higher wages, it’s about building better, safer communities, while saving taxpayers millions of dollars.” 

The decrease in crime would reduce the incarcerated population by about 370 people per year and lower recidivism by about 6%, according to the report’s estimates. This could save Oklahoma’s correctional system $5.7 million annually. 

Oklahoma had the fifth-highest incarceration rate in the U.S. as of 2022, the report found. 

States with minimum wages above $15 per hour have lower incarceration rates than states with lower minimum wages, the report found. 

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The Oklahoma Rundown 📰

A hand-curated list of the best journalism from across the state:

• 5 things to know about Wednesday's special meeting of state Board of Education (Tulsa World)

• Federal judge blocks in-state tuition for unauthorized migrant students in Oklahoma (KOSU)

• Oklahoma daycare providers outraged after audit finds OKDHS mismanaged pandemic relief funds (KFOR)

• Oklahoma City has already seen 5 domestic violence homicides in 2025 (KOCO)

• The Oklahoma Panhandle's biggest city doesn't have enough water. That's about to change (KOSU)

• Signing bonuses draw 151 special education teachers to Oklahoma schools (Oklahoma Voice)

• Oklahoma Superintendent Ryan Walters’ PragerU-backed 'woke' teacher test impossible to fail (KGOU)

• 13-year-old dies in fireworks accident Monday, Tulsa police say (Tulsa World)

• Tulsa County deputies discover massive illegal dump site in creek (News On 6)

• Thousands of state employees still working remotely (Oklahoma Watch)

• Oklahoma family joins federal lawsuit against popular gaming site for “sextortion” (KFOR)

• AG Drummond says housing agency appointees discriminating against white, heterosexual homeowners (Fox 23)

• Opportunity to thrive: North Tulsa’s Phoenix at 36N opens to first residents (The Oklahoma Eagle)

• Mercy Health Love County re-opens emergency room (KXII)

• Tulsan goes from homeless to higher ed (Public Radio Tulsa)

• Fall session opens for Osage lawmakers with focus on FY26 budget (Osage News)

• Improved weather systems installed at some Oklahoma airports (OK Energy Today)

• What are Joseph Harroz Jr., Randall Stephenson looking for in OU's new athletic director? (The Oklahoman)

• Oklahoma ranks low in AI preparedness but sees growth potential (The Journal Record)

• Oklahoma Preservation Commission approves new privately-funded Governor's residence (KOSU)

• Motion hearings scheduled in former Peckham Superintendent criminal case (Kay News Cow)

• Attorney discusses dismissal of charges against former Ringling coach (KTEN)

• Deputy recovering after dog attack during domestic arrest (Guthrie News Page)

• Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy recreates 'I'm a man' rant for commercial (The Oklahoman)

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